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Climate Crisis, Dopey Dogma & Scam Science

August 19, 2013

Niger1

Niger2

Niger3Sadly, Mr. Gonnaskruyu’s proposal makes far more sense than what is being disseminated as scientific “fact” by our self proclaimed moral and intellectual superiors.  Still watching and waiting for the Mann/Steyn/NRO defamation suit to get to the “discovery” stage where Dr. Mann’s carefully concealed dubious data must be presented to the defense. Finally, the climate discourse in a courtroom venue where logic and verifiable evidence are demanded.

That said I’ll refer you to Steve Malloy at JunkScience. Warren Meyer at Climate Skeptic, and the preeminent hockey stick breakers Stephen McIntire and Ross McKitrick via Climate Audit. These are the guys who exposed the bizarre distortions of science, statistics and veracity incorporated by Mann et. al. to come up with the hockey stick shtick. Excellent lay level overview of the whole stick saga is at A Skeptical Mind, The Rise and Fall of the Hockey Stick. An exerpt:

What McIntyre and McKitrick discovered was that Mann had used very unusual principal component values and the effect of the choice of value used had drastically skewed the outcome of the blending and averaging exercise. Effectively what Mann’s odd statistical techniques did was to select data that had any sort of Hockey Stick shape and hugely increase its weight in the averaging process. Using Mann’s technique it meant that any data was almost certain to produce a spurious Hockey Stick shape.

Here is an example of the sort of things Mann was doing to the raw data.

AGW Two-treerings-series

Above are two separate temperature reconstructions running from 1400AD, both use tree rings, one is from California and one is from Arizona. Both were were part of the data used by Mann and included in the Hockey Stick average. The top one shows a temperature up tick at the end in the 20th century like the final Hockey Stick, the other shows a relatively flat temperature for the 20th century. Mann’s statistical trick gives the top series, the one with the desired Hockey Stick shape a weighting in the data that is 390 times that of the bottom series just because it has a Hockey Stick bend at the end.

Samuel Clemmons comes to mind…

“Facts are stubborn things. Statistics are somewhat more pliable.”

“98% of the time you can make statistics prove anything you want.”

 

I would personally love to see a rational and reasonable dialogue emerge on the subject. This dogma that AGW is scientifically proven beyond question is disconcerting and more than a little creepy. Even more so the  moral imperative that skepticism about the issue is tantamount to human genocide. Or worse. Somewhere along the line the idea that individuals can investigate and weigh evidence and data and form logical conclusions has been trumped by a meme that “scientists” have some kind of “Gnosis” – special knowledge far beyond the grasp of us intellectual “proletariat.”

The “Tree Ring Circus” says otherwise.

 

 

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